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prevenir lesions futures&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Tradicionalment&#44; les recerques de la medicina esportiva s&#39;han centrat sobretot en el diagn&#242;stic i en els aspectes terap&#232;utics de les lesions esportives &#40;fig&#46; 1&#41;&#46; Ara b&#233;&#44; la prevenci&#243; hauria de ser un dels nostres primers objectius&#46; Una prevenci&#243; adequada&#44; un diagn&#242;stic r&#224;pid i el tractament idoni podran possibilitar que la carrera esportiva d&#39;un esportista no quedi estroncada i que aconsegueixi les fites personals i professionals que corresponguin al seu veritable potencial&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><img src="278v43n157-13117403tab02.gif"></img></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">Figura 1</span> L&#237;nies d&#39;investigaci&#243; de les lesions esportives&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">La comprensi&#243; dels mecanismes de les lesions i dels riscos pot fer possible una prevenci&#243; m&#233;s id&#242;nia&#46; Per aconseguir-ho&#44; tal com assenyala Buceta<span class="elsevierStyleSup">8</span>&#44; cal determinar les variables que poden incrementar la vulnerabilitat dels esportistes per lesionar-se&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Podem suggerir que s&#243;n 3 els factors generals amb un paper predominant en el risc de patir una lesi&#243;&#58; t&#232;cniques incorrectes en l&#39;entrenament&#44; equipaments inadequats o deteriorats i anormalitats biomec&#224;niques i antropom&#232;triques&#46; Aquest &#250;ltim grup de factors &#233;s el punt de partida de les nostres recerques&#44; en qu&#232; intentem descobrir el risc potencial de lesi&#243; que pot patir un esportista a partir de determinats par&#224;metres antropom&#232;trics en els membres inferiors&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">De totes maneres&#44; ens afegim a la consideraci&#243; acceptada per la majoria dels autors&#44; sobre el car&#224;cter multifactorial que pot tenir incid&#232;ncia en les lesions<span class="elsevierStyleSup">1&#44;9-13</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold"> L&#39;an&#224;lisi antropom&#232;trica com a mecanisme de predicci&#243; de lesions</span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Els factors individuals que han estat investigats m&#233;s freq&#252;entment inclouen la laxitud articular<span class="elsevierStyleSup">14-17</span>&#44; la flexibilitat<span class="elsevierStyleSup">18&#44;19</span> i variables biomec&#224;niques o estructurals<span class="elsevierStyleSup">16&#44;20-23</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">La comparaci&#243; entre les dades obtingudes mostra resultats equ&#237;vocs&#46; Nicholas<span class="elsevierStyleSup">17</span> va ser el primer que va intentar identificar alguns d&#39;aquests factors&#46; Va trobar una correlaci&#243; positiva entre jugadors de futbol americ&#224; que presentaven valors de flexibilitat articular superiors i l&#39;&#237;ndex de lesions&#46; Amb tot&#44; nombrosos estudis posteriors no han estat capa&#231;os de confirmar aquesta investigaci&#243;<span class="elsevierStyleSup">14-16&#44;24&#44;25</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Semblantment&#44; Steele i White<span class="elsevierStyleSup">26</span> van trobar que les variables antropom&#232;triques i estructurals eren millors indicadors de possibles lesions en gimnastes&#46; Aix&#237;&#44; una revisi&#243; dels estudis que relacionen l&#39;estructura corporal o biomec&#224;nica amb la incid&#232;ncia de les lesions en l&#39;esport ofereixen uns resultats m&#233;s encoratjadors<span class="elsevierStyleSup">20-22</span>&#46; Factors com ara la difer&#232;ncia en la longitud dels membres inferiors i el peu var o valg han demostrat amb consist&#232;ncia que estan relacionats amb una incid&#232;ncia m&#233;s alta en les lesions de les extremitats inferiors&#44; sent corredors la mostra principalment utilitzada en la majoria d&#39;aquests estudis<span class="elsevierStyleSup">20-22</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold"> Predicci&#243; de lesions mitjan&#231;ant regressi&#243; log&#237;stica</span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Els models de regressi&#243; engloben una s&#232;rie de t&#232;cniques matem&#224;tiques que tracten de mesurar la relaci&#243; entre una variable resultat i una o unes variable&#47;s predictora&#47;res&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span> ha publicat una f&#243;rmula matem&#224;tica que mostra resultats esperan&#231;adors en relacionar algunes mides estructurals amb la incid&#232;ncia de lesions en les extremitats inferiors en jugadors de basquetbol&#46; Va desenvolupar una equaci&#243; de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica de tres variables que predeia la probabilitat de lesi&#243; en un 91&#37; dels jugadors de basquetbol&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#205;ndex de lesions de Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Desequilibri de pes  x 0&#44;36 &#43; desviaci&#243; de l&#39;angle Q dret x 0&#44;48 &#43; desviaci&#243; de l&#39;angle Q esquerre  x 0&#44;86 &#173; 7&#44;04</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Les 3 variables utilitzades van ser l&#39;angle Q del genoll dret&#44; l&#39;angle Q del genoll esquerre i la difer&#232;ncia de pes de suport d&#39;ambdues cames&#46; Es va observar que un resultat de lesi&#243; m&#233;s gran que zero era un indicador de lesi&#243; en les extremitats inferiors&#44; mentre que un resultat menor que zero era indicador de la probabilitat de no lesionar-se&#46; Com m&#233;s gran era la magnitud del resultat&#44; tamb&#233; m&#233;s gran era la probabilitat que un jugador recaigu&#233;s en una categoria o una altra&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">No obstant aix&#242;&#44; els resultats de Grubbs<span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span>&#44; que estudi&#224; l&#39;equaci&#243; de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica de Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span>&#44; van constatar que no era una eina v&#224;lida en la predicci&#243; de la probabilitat de patir una lesi&#243;&#46; Entre les possibles causes que proposa Grubbs<span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span> per explicar la inconsist&#232;ncia de la f&#243;rmula de Shambaugh destaquen les diverses poblacions d&#39;estudi&#44; el disseny i el m&#232;tode&#44; no incloure subjectes femenins en l&#39;estudi&#44; no consensuar una definici&#243; de lesi&#243; i no tenir en compte el temps d&#39;exposici&#243; pr&#224;ctica&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Basant-se en ambd&#243;s estudis&#44; Salazar<span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span> aplica l&#39;&#237;ndex de Shambaugh en jugadors de basquetbol en relaci&#243; amb l&#39;exposici&#243; pr&#224;ctica&#44; incloent-hi subjectes d&#39;ambd&#243;s sexes i utilitzant la definici&#243; de lesi&#243; de Grubbs<span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span>&#46; Els resultats que obt&#233; fan recomanable l&#39;an&#224;lisi de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica com una eina positiva per analitzar mides antropom&#232;triques i morfoconstitucionals entre una poblaci&#243; i diferenciar agents de risc en un esport&#46; No obt&#233; resultats tan satisfactoris com Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span>&#44; per&#242; els valors obtinguts s&#243;n prou satisfactoris com per recomanar-ne l&#39;&#250;s&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Salazar<span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span> aporta una nova f&#243;rmula matem&#224;tica predictora de lesions en jugadors&#47;res adolescents de basquetbol&#44; elaborada a partir de l&#39;original de Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span> i constru&#239;da mitjan&#231;ant una an&#224;lisi de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica&#46; Tanmateix&#44; la bondat del seu poder predictor lesional no est&#224; prou provada&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#205;ndex de lesions de Salazar<span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span></span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> 1&#47;1 &#43; e<span class="elsevierStyleSup">0&#44;1621 &#173; 0&#44;06344</span><span class="elsevierStyleSup">x mitjana &#237;ndex de Shambaugh&#42;</span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara">&#42; La mitjana de Shambaugh fa refer&#232;ncia a la f&#243;rmula matem&#224;tica poposada per Shambaugh&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Paral&#183;lelament&#44; Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">29</span> va presentar en un congr&#233;s l&#39;any 2000 una modificaci&#243; de la seva f&#243;rmula original &#40;Salazar<span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span>&#41;&#44; incloent quatre variables en comptes de les tres utilitzades per a la seva equaci&#243; de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica&#46; La nova variable era el quadrat de la difer&#232;ncia entre el gruix de les cuixes&#46; Tampoc no ha estat prou utilitzada en investigacions cient&#237;fiques&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#205;ndex de lesions de Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">29</span></span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Desequilibri de pes  x 0&#44;27 &#43; 1&#44;46 x quadrat de la difer&#232;ncia entre el gruix de les cuixes &#43;0&#44;22 x difer&#232;ncia de l&#39;angle Q entre ambd&#243;s genolls &#43; 0&#44;94 x anormal angle Q dret &#173; 6&#44;46</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Basant-nos en aquestes investigacions&#44; el nostre grup d&#39;investigaci&#243; ha analitzat les diverses variables predictores en una poblaci&#243; esportiva diferent&#44; tot considerant atletes de curses i salts d&#39;ambd&#243;s sexes i amb edats compreses entre els 14 i els 18 anys<span class="elsevierStyleSup">30</span>&#46; El nostre objectiu era trobar una eina v&#224;lida per predir el risc de lesi&#243; en la poblaci&#243; esmentada&#44; i varem obtenir l&#39;algorisme matem&#224;tic seg&#252;ent&#58;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#205;ndex de lesions de Fern&#225;ndez<span class="elsevierStyleSup">30</span></span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> 1&#47;1 &#43; e<span class="elsevierStyleSup">&#173;&#40;0&#44;757</span><span class="elsevierStyleSup">x AQI &#173; 0&#44;647 3 DGM2&#41;</span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara">on AQI &#233;s l&#39;angle Q esquerre&#44; i DGM2&#44; el quadrat de la difer&#232;ncia entre el gruix de les cuixes&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">El percentatge global de bona classificaci&#243; del model obtingut va ser del 68&#44;6&#37;&#46; El punt de tall &#40;0&#44;5&#41; indica que els subjectes amb valors iguals o superiors a 0&#44;5 quedarien enquadrats en la categoria de possibles lesionats&#44; mentre que un valor inferior els enquadraria en la categoria de possibles il&#183;lesos&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Aquestes investigacions mostren que l&#39;an&#224;lisi per regressi&#243; log&#237;stica pot ser un m&#232;tode v&#224;lid en la discriminaci&#243; de par&#224;metres antropom&#232;trics relacionats amb les lesions esportives&#46; No obstant aix&#242;&#44; cal continuar investigant per consolidar que l&#39;an&#224;lisi de l&#39;estructura corporal de l&#39;esportista pot ser un bon instrument en el pron&#242;stic de lesions en el futur&#44; tot millorant-ne els &#232;xits esportius juntament amb la seva salut&#46;</p><hr></hr><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Correspond&#232;ncia&#58;<br></br> Juan Carlos de la Cruz M&#225;rquez&#46;<br></br> Facultad de Ciencias de la Actividad F&#237;sica y el Deporte&#46;<br></br> Departamento de Educaci&#243;n F&#237;sica&#46;<br></br> Carretera de Alfacar s&#47;n&#46; 18011 Granada&#46; Espanya&#46;<br></br> Correu electr&#242;nic&#58; <a href="mailto&#58;dlcruz&#64;ugr&#46;es" class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs"> dlcruz&#64;ugr&#46;es</a></p>"
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        "resumen" => "Les lesions esportives que afecten els membres inferiors en els esports de m&#233;s impacte&#44; com l&#39;atletisme o el basquetbol&#44; es poden predir mitjan&#231;ant l&#39;&#250;s d&#39;equacions de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica&#46; El primer &#237;ndex predictor de lesions va ser descrit per Shambaugh el 1991&#44; emprant com a variables dependents el desequilibri del pes en suport bipodal i la desviaci&#243; de l&#39;angle Q del qu&#224;driceps&#46; Salazar &#40;2000&#41; va desenvolupar una f&#243;rmula matem&#224;tica predictora de lesions basada en la de Shambaugh mitjan&#231;ant una equaci&#243; de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica i Fern&#225;ndez &#40;2004&#41; ha introdu&#239;t el gruix de la cuixa com a variable transcendent en la predicci&#243; de lesions&#44; en aportar una equaci&#243; m&#233;s precisa&#46; Aquestes investigacions mostren que l&#39;an&#224;lisi de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica pot ser un m&#232;tode v&#224;lid en la discriminaci&#243; de par&#224;metres antropom&#232;trics relacionats amb les lesions esportives&#44; tot aportant un m&#232;tode fiable i senzill que es podria utilitzar en la pr&#224;ctica m&#232;dica esportiva habitual&#46;"
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        "resumen" => "Sports injuries affecting the lower extremities in high impact sports&#44; such as athletics or basketball&#44; can be predicted by means of logistic regression equations&#46; The first injury score was described by Shambaugh in 1991&#44; using imbalance in bilateral weight and deviation of the Q-angle of the quadriceps as dependent variables&#46; Salazar &#40;2000&#41; developed a mathematical equation to predict lesions based on Shambaugh&#39;s score and constructed through logistic regression analysis&#44; while Fern&#225;ndez &#40;2004&#41; introduced thigh thickness as a transcendence variable in the prediction of injuries&#44; leading to a more precise equation&#46; These investigations show that logistic regression analysis can be a valid method for discriminating among anthropometric parameters related to sports injuries&#44; providing a simple and reliable method that could be used in the routine practice of sports medicine&#46;"
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                  "referenciaCompleta" => "The Ontario cohort study of running related injuries. Arch Intern Med. 1989;149:2561-4."
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                      "titulo" => "The Ontario cohort study of running related injuries&#46;"
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                  "referenciaCompleta" => "Running Injury-Free. Emmaus, PA: Rodale, Inc.; 1994."
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                    0 => array:3 [
                      "titulo" => "Injuries in high-risk persons and high-risk sports&#46; A longitudinal study of 1&#44;818 school children&#46;"
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                  "referenciaCompleta" => "The etiology of sport injures a review of methodologies. Sports Med. 1985;2:47-58."
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                      "titulo" => "The etiology of sport injures a review of methodologies&#46;"
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                      "titulo" => "Athletic Injuries to the Head&#44; Neck and Face&#46; Philadelphia&#58; Lea &#38; Febiger&#59; 1982&#46;"
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Predicció de lesions esportives mitjançant models matemàtics
Predicting sports injuries by means of mathematical models
Antonio Fernández Martíneza, Juan Carlos de la Cruz Márquezb, Belén Cueto Martínb, Santiago Salazar Alonsocc, Juan Carlos de la Cruz Camposb
a Universidad Pablo de Olavide. Facultad del Deporte. Departamento de Educación Física. Sevilla. Espanya.
b Universidad de Granada. Facultad de Ciencias de la Actividad Física y el Deporte. Departamento de Educación Física. Granada. Espanya.
c Instituto Vicente Espinel. Junta de Andalucía. Consejería de Educación. Málaga. Espanya.
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    "textoCompleto" => "<p class="elsevierStylePara"> L&#39;inter&#232;s per l&#39;exercici f&#237;sic es va incrementant progressivament i el nombre de practicants augmenta en una progressi&#243; constant fins que avui dia fer exercici f&#237;sic representa una alternativa de lleure i un benefici per a la salut&#46; Per&#242; l&#39;esport tamb&#233; representa actualment una activitat social i cultural de primer ordre&#44; en la qual es veuen implicats milions de persones arreu del m&#243;n&#46; Per&#242; si b&#233; l&#39;exercici f&#237;sic realitzat en condicions adequades t&#233; un efecte positiu sobre la salut&#44; augmenta per si mateix el risc de lesi&#243;<span class="elsevierStyleSup">1-3</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">En la taula I es pot observar la taxa de lesions per cada 1&#46;000 esportistes joves a l&#39;any en diversos esports&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><img src="278v43n157-13117403tab01.gif"></img></p><p class="elsevierStylePara">El 39&#37; dels espanyols practiquen algun esport&#44; tot i que nom&#233;s el 6&#37; el practica di&#224;riament&#59; la meitat d&#39;aquest 6&#37; patir&#224; algun tipus de lesi&#243; lleu durant la seva vida<span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Els estudis sobre lesions esportives s&#243;n un fenomen relativament recent&#46; Majorit&#224;riament&#44; les primeres aproximacions es van basar en estudis de s&#232;ries de casos&#44; tot presentant el problema a fi d&#39;identificar amb seguretat la causa o les causes que van produir la lesi&#243;<span class="elsevierStyleSup">6</span>&#46; L&#39;aplicaci&#243; dels principis d&#39;epidemiologia van contribuir a fer llum en la determinaci&#243; dels factors de risc<span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Diversos estudis han intentat identificar els factors relacionats amb l&#39;increment del nombre de lesions en la pr&#224;ctica esportiva&#46; La identificaci&#243; d&#39;aquests factors podria capacitar entrenadors i esportistes per modificar els programes d&#39;entrenament i aix&#237; prevenir lesions futures&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Tradicionalment&#44; les recerques de la medicina esportiva s&#39;han centrat sobretot en el diagn&#242;stic i en els aspectes terap&#232;utics de les lesions esportives &#40;fig&#46; 1&#41;&#46; Ara b&#233;&#44; la prevenci&#243; hauria de ser un dels nostres primers objectius&#46; Una prevenci&#243; adequada&#44; un diagn&#242;stic r&#224;pid i el tractament idoni podran possibilitar que la carrera esportiva d&#39;un esportista no quedi estroncada i que aconsegueixi les fites personals i professionals que corresponguin al seu veritable potencial&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><img src="278v43n157-13117403tab02.gif"></img></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">Figura 1</span> L&#237;nies d&#39;investigaci&#243; de les lesions esportives&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">La comprensi&#243; dels mecanismes de les lesions i dels riscos pot fer possible una prevenci&#243; m&#233;s id&#242;nia&#46; Per aconseguir-ho&#44; tal com assenyala Buceta<span class="elsevierStyleSup">8</span>&#44; cal determinar les variables que poden incrementar la vulnerabilitat dels esportistes per lesionar-se&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Podem suggerir que s&#243;n 3 els factors generals amb un paper predominant en el risc de patir una lesi&#243;&#58; t&#232;cniques incorrectes en l&#39;entrenament&#44; equipaments inadequats o deteriorats i anormalitats biomec&#224;niques i antropom&#232;triques&#46; Aquest &#250;ltim grup de factors &#233;s el punt de partida de les nostres recerques&#44; en qu&#232; intentem descobrir el risc potencial de lesi&#243; que pot patir un esportista a partir de determinats par&#224;metres antropom&#232;trics en els membres inferiors&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">De totes maneres&#44; ens afegim a la consideraci&#243; acceptada per la majoria dels autors&#44; sobre el car&#224;cter multifactorial que pot tenir incid&#232;ncia en les lesions<span class="elsevierStyleSup">1&#44;9-13</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold"> L&#39;an&#224;lisi antropom&#232;trica com a mecanisme de predicci&#243; de lesions</span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Els factors individuals que han estat investigats m&#233;s freq&#252;entment inclouen la laxitud articular<span class="elsevierStyleSup">14-17</span>&#44; la flexibilitat<span class="elsevierStyleSup">18&#44;19</span> i variables biomec&#224;niques o estructurals<span class="elsevierStyleSup">16&#44;20-23</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">La comparaci&#243; entre les dades obtingudes mostra resultats equ&#237;vocs&#46; Nicholas<span class="elsevierStyleSup">17</span> va ser el primer que va intentar identificar alguns d&#39;aquests factors&#46; Va trobar una correlaci&#243; positiva entre jugadors de futbol americ&#224; que presentaven valors de flexibilitat articular superiors i l&#39;&#237;ndex de lesions&#46; Amb tot&#44; nombrosos estudis posteriors no han estat capa&#231;os de confirmar aquesta investigaci&#243;<span class="elsevierStyleSup">14-16&#44;24&#44;25</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Semblantment&#44; Steele i White<span class="elsevierStyleSup">26</span> van trobar que les variables antropom&#232;triques i estructurals eren millors indicadors de possibles lesions en gimnastes&#46; Aix&#237;&#44; una revisi&#243; dels estudis que relacionen l&#39;estructura corporal o biomec&#224;nica amb la incid&#232;ncia de les lesions en l&#39;esport ofereixen uns resultats m&#233;s encoratjadors<span class="elsevierStyleSup">20-22</span>&#46; Factors com ara la difer&#232;ncia en la longitud dels membres inferiors i el peu var o valg han demostrat amb consist&#232;ncia que estan relacionats amb una incid&#232;ncia m&#233;s alta en les lesions de les extremitats inferiors&#44; sent corredors la mostra principalment utilitzada en la majoria d&#39;aquests estudis<span class="elsevierStyleSup">20-22</span>&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold"> Predicci&#243; de lesions mitjan&#231;ant regressi&#243; log&#237;stica</span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Els models de regressi&#243; engloben una s&#232;rie de t&#232;cniques matem&#224;tiques que tracten de mesurar la relaci&#243; entre una variable resultat i una o unes variable&#47;s predictora&#47;res&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span> ha publicat una f&#243;rmula matem&#224;tica que mostra resultats esperan&#231;adors en relacionar algunes mides estructurals amb la incid&#232;ncia de lesions en les extremitats inferiors en jugadors de basquetbol&#46; Va desenvolupar una equaci&#243; de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica de tres variables que predeia la probabilitat de lesi&#243; en un 91&#37; dels jugadors de basquetbol&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#205;ndex de lesions de Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Desequilibri de pes  x 0&#44;36 &#43; desviaci&#243; de l&#39;angle Q dret x 0&#44;48 &#43; desviaci&#243; de l&#39;angle Q esquerre  x 0&#44;86 &#173; 7&#44;04</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Les 3 variables utilitzades van ser l&#39;angle Q del genoll dret&#44; l&#39;angle Q del genoll esquerre i la difer&#232;ncia de pes de suport d&#39;ambdues cames&#46; Es va observar que un resultat de lesi&#243; m&#233;s gran que zero era un indicador de lesi&#243; en les extremitats inferiors&#44; mentre que un resultat menor que zero era indicador de la probabilitat de no lesionar-se&#46; Com m&#233;s gran era la magnitud del resultat&#44; tamb&#233; m&#233;s gran era la probabilitat que un jugador recaigu&#233;s en una categoria o una altra&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">No obstant aix&#242;&#44; els resultats de Grubbs<span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span>&#44; que estudi&#224; l&#39;equaci&#243; de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica de Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span>&#44; van constatar que no era una eina v&#224;lida en la predicci&#243; de la probabilitat de patir una lesi&#243;&#46; Entre les possibles causes que proposa Grubbs<span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span> per explicar la inconsist&#232;ncia de la f&#243;rmula de Shambaugh destaquen les diverses poblacions d&#39;estudi&#44; el disseny i el m&#232;tode&#44; no incloure subjectes femenins en l&#39;estudi&#44; no consensuar una definici&#243; de lesi&#243; i no tenir en compte el temps d&#39;exposici&#243; pr&#224;ctica&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Basant-se en ambd&#243;s estudis&#44; Salazar<span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span> aplica l&#39;&#237;ndex de Shambaugh en jugadors de basquetbol en relaci&#243; amb l&#39;exposici&#243; pr&#224;ctica&#44; incloent-hi subjectes d&#39;ambd&#243;s sexes i utilitzant la definici&#243; de lesi&#243; de Grubbs<span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span>&#46; Els resultats que obt&#233; fan recomanable l&#39;an&#224;lisi de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica com una eina positiva per analitzar mides antropom&#232;triques i morfoconstitucionals entre una poblaci&#243; i diferenciar agents de risc en un esport&#46; No obt&#233; resultats tan satisfactoris com Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span>&#44; per&#242; els valors obtinguts s&#243;n prou satisfactoris com per recomanar-ne l&#39;&#250;s&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Salazar<span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span> aporta una nova f&#243;rmula matem&#224;tica predictora de lesions en jugadors&#47;res adolescents de basquetbol&#44; elaborada a partir de l&#39;original de Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span> i constru&#239;da mitjan&#231;ant una an&#224;lisi de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica&#46; Tanmateix&#44; la bondat del seu poder predictor lesional no est&#224; prou provada&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#205;ndex de lesions de Salazar<span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span></span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> 1&#47;1 &#43; e<span class="elsevierStyleSup">0&#44;1621 &#173; 0&#44;06344</span><span class="elsevierStyleSup">x mitjana &#237;ndex de Shambaugh&#42;</span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara">&#42; La mitjana de Shambaugh fa refer&#232;ncia a la f&#243;rmula matem&#224;tica poposada per Shambaugh&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Paral&#183;lelament&#44; Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">29</span> va presentar en un congr&#233;s l&#39;any 2000 una modificaci&#243; de la seva f&#243;rmula original &#40;Salazar<span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span>&#41;&#44; incloent quatre variables en comptes de les tres utilitzades per a la seva equaci&#243; de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica&#46; La nova variable era el quadrat de la difer&#232;ncia entre el gruix de les cuixes&#46; Tampoc no ha estat prou utilitzada en investigacions cient&#237;fiques&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#205;ndex de lesions de Shambaugh<span class="elsevierStyleSup">29</span></span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Desequilibri de pes  x 0&#44;27 &#43; 1&#44;46 x quadrat de la difer&#232;ncia entre el gruix de les cuixes &#43;0&#44;22 x difer&#232;ncia de l&#39;angle Q entre ambd&#243;s genolls &#43; 0&#44;94 x anormal angle Q dret &#173; 6&#44;46</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Basant-nos en aquestes investigacions&#44; el nostre grup d&#39;investigaci&#243; ha analitzat les diverses variables predictores en una poblaci&#243; esportiva diferent&#44; tot considerant atletes de curses i salts d&#39;ambd&#243;s sexes i amb edats compreses entre els 14 i els 18 anys<span class="elsevierStyleSup">30</span>&#46; El nostre objectiu era trobar una eina v&#224;lida per predir el risc de lesi&#243; en la poblaci&#243; esmentada&#44; i varem obtenir l&#39;algorisme matem&#224;tic seg&#252;ent&#58;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#205;ndex de lesions de Fern&#225;ndez<span class="elsevierStyleSup">30</span></span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> 1&#47;1 &#43; e<span class="elsevierStyleSup">&#173;&#40;0&#44;757</span><span class="elsevierStyleSup">x AQI &#173; 0&#44;647 3 DGM2&#41;</span></p><p class="elsevierStylePara">on AQI &#233;s l&#39;angle Q esquerre&#44; i DGM2&#44; el quadrat de la difer&#232;ncia entre el gruix de les cuixes&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara">El percentatge global de bona classificaci&#243; del model obtingut va ser del 68&#44;6&#37;&#46; El punt de tall &#40;0&#44;5&#41; indica que els subjectes amb valors iguals o superiors a 0&#44;5 quedarien enquadrats en la categoria de possibles lesionats&#44; mentre que un valor inferior els enquadraria en la categoria de possibles il&#183;lesos&#46;</p><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Aquestes investigacions mostren que l&#39;an&#224;lisi per regressi&#243; log&#237;stica pot ser un m&#232;tode v&#224;lid en la discriminaci&#243; de par&#224;metres antropom&#232;trics relacionats amb les lesions esportives&#46; No obstant aix&#242;&#44; cal continuar investigant per consolidar que l&#39;an&#224;lisi de l&#39;estructura corporal de l&#39;esportista pot ser un bon instrument en el pron&#242;stic de lesions en el futur&#44; tot millorant-ne els &#232;xits esportius juntament amb la seva salut&#46;</p><hr></hr><p class="elsevierStylePara"> Correspond&#232;ncia&#58;<br></br> Juan Carlos de la Cruz M&#225;rquez&#46;<br></br> Facultad de Ciencias de la Actividad F&#237;sica y el Deporte&#46;<br></br> Departamento de Educaci&#243;n F&#237;sica&#46;<br></br> Carretera de Alfacar s&#47;n&#46; 18011 Granada&#46; Espanya&#46;<br></br> Correu electr&#242;nic&#58; <a href="mailto&#58;dlcruz&#64;ugr&#46;es" class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs"> dlcruz&#64;ugr&#46;es</a></p>"
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        "resumen" => "Les lesions esportives que afecten els membres inferiors en els esports de m&#233;s impacte&#44; com l&#39;atletisme o el basquetbol&#44; es poden predir mitjan&#231;ant l&#39;&#250;s d&#39;equacions de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica&#46; El primer &#237;ndex predictor de lesions va ser descrit per Shambaugh el 1991&#44; emprant com a variables dependents el desequilibri del pes en suport bipodal i la desviaci&#243; de l&#39;angle Q del qu&#224;driceps&#46; Salazar &#40;2000&#41; va desenvolupar una f&#243;rmula matem&#224;tica predictora de lesions basada en la de Shambaugh mitjan&#231;ant una equaci&#243; de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica i Fern&#225;ndez &#40;2004&#41; ha introdu&#239;t el gruix de la cuixa com a variable transcendent en la predicci&#243; de lesions&#44; en aportar una equaci&#243; m&#233;s precisa&#46; Aquestes investigacions mostren que l&#39;an&#224;lisi de regressi&#243; log&#237;stica pot ser un m&#232;tode v&#224;lid en la discriminaci&#243; de par&#224;metres antropom&#232;trics relacionats amb les lesions esportives&#44; tot aportant un m&#232;tode fiable i senzill que es podria utilitzar en la pr&#224;ctica m&#232;dica esportiva habitual&#46;"
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        "resumen" => "Sports injuries affecting the lower extremities in high impact sports&#44; such as athletics or basketball&#44; can be predicted by means of logistic regression equations&#46; The first injury score was described by Shambaugh in 1991&#44; using imbalance in bilateral weight and deviation of the Q-angle of the quadriceps as dependent variables&#46; Salazar &#40;2000&#41; developed a mathematical equation to predict lesions based on Shambaugh&#39;s score and constructed through logistic regression analysis&#44; while Fern&#225;ndez &#40;2004&#41; introduced thigh thickness as a transcendence variable in the prediction of injuries&#44; leading to a more precise equation&#46; These investigations show that logistic regression analysis can be a valid method for discriminating among anthropometric parameters related to sports injuries&#44; providing a simple and reliable method that could be used in the routine practice of sports medicine&#46;"
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                    0 => array:3 [
                      "titulo" => "Injuries to runner&#39;s&#58; a study of entrants to a 10&#44;000 meters race&#46;"
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Article information
ISSN: X8866581
Original language: Català
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